Will the Paris summit deliver a “real deal” on the fight against climate change?

Will the Paris summit deliver a “real deal” on the fight against climate change?

More than 140 world leaders will be present in Paris starting today, for the global climate summit tasked with keeping Earth livable for the next generations, by limiting carbon emissions as well as the rise of the planet’s mean temperature below the “red limit” of 2 degrees Celsius. Despite the extraordinary security measures imposed in the French capital after the recent terrorist attacks, forcing the cancellation of several public events and demonstrations, Barack Obama, Francois Hollande, Angela Merkel, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi and many more leaders decided to attend the summit – among others, to send a clear and sound message to the jihadists all over the world, that terrorism will never win this battle.

So far so good. But the big questions still remain unanswered: Are all these leaders capable and at the same time willing to overcome the stalemate, enabling hopes to be reborn? Are they ready to sign a document containing binding measures for the crucial decades to come? Can they break the strict rules of budget discipline and reduction of public expenditure, which threaten the growth of the renewables sector? Do they have the political power to overcome pressure and ‘blackmail’ by part of the traditional fossil fuel lobbies? And lastly, do they really understand that time is running out and this might be the last chance Earth will ever have to be saved?

If they do, they should act decisively and deliver fast. “We have to act now to slash greenhouse gas emissions if we are to have a chance to maintain the increase in temperatures to manageable levels”, World Meteorological Organization secretary general, Michel Jarraud, said recently in a statement, as graphs issued by the United Nations Agency showed levels of carbon dioxide (the main greenhouse gas) climbing steadily towards the 400 ppm (parts per million) mark, having hit a new record every year since reliable records began, in 1984.

According to the same organization, this year will be the hottest on record and 2016 could be even hotter due to the El Nino weather pattern. As a matter of fact, in 2015 global average surface temperatures are likely to reach the “symbolic and significant milestone” of 1,0 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial (1980-1899) level. “The more we wait for action, the more difficult it will be”, Jarraud stated at a news conference.

The big picture today is diverse regarding greenhouse emissions. According to climate experts, in recent years, the emissions are generally falling in the richest nations of the G20 – United States, European Union, Canada, Australia, Japan, but also South Africa and Mexico. EU in particular, is a pioneer in the battle against climate change.

At the same time, in most of the so-called developing economies the trend is opposite and emissions are still rising – China, India, Russia, Brazil, South Korea, Argentina, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. As for the global carbon pricing scheme, supposed to cut pollution and aid clean technologies, experts say it has no place in the Paris climate talks.

Therefore, all of the scenarios regarding the Paris summit are on the table: From the one leading to strong and binding decisions, up to those with ‘business as usual’. But everyone should understand (mainly the political leaders, but not only them…) that the future of Earth is not a question of compromise but a matter of life and death. Some decisions are irreversible and in certain cases, inaction is catastrophic.

In a few days, we shall know the answer to our questions. And we shall see if the leaders can surprise the world positively. Even for once…

Elisa Asmelash, Junior Energy Consultant @ Revelle Group

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